OZY and 0ptimus bring you an exclusive election prediction model, crunching polls, demographics and more to provide a snapshot of where the 2020 race stands — and the candidates’ chances of victory. Click here for more about our methodology.

State-by-State Predictions

What our predictions say about the most hotly contested states and races across the country.

Key States
DEM Chance of Victory
GOP Chance of Victory
Rating
Arizona
56.62
43.38
TOSS-UP
Georgia
50.64
49.36
TOSS-UP
Iowa
44.50
55.50
TOSS-UP
North Carolina
58.10
41.90
TOSS-UP
Nebraska CD 2
59.16
40.84
TOSS-UP
Ohio
46.12
53.88
TOSS-UP
Florida
66.83
33.17
LEAN-D
Maine CD 2
60.03
39.97
LEAN-D
Texas
38.91
61.09
LEAN-R
Michigan
81.91
18.09
LIKELY-D
Minnesota
87.34
12.66
LIKELY-D
Nevada
78.45
21.55
LIKELY-D
Pennsylvania
76.73
23.27
LIKELY-D
Wisconsin
81.27
18.73
LIKELY-D
Alaska
18.86
81.14
LIKELY-R
Missouri
14.93
85.07
LIKELY-R
Montana
20.90
79.10
LIKELY-R
South Carolina
14.15
85.85
LIKELY-R
California
100.00
0.00
SAFE-D
Colorado
93.64
6.36
SAFE-D
Connecticut
99.99
0.01
SAFE-D
District of Columbia
100.00
0.00
SAFE-D
Delaware
99.92
0.08
SAFE-D
Hawaii
100.00
0.00
SAFE-D
Illinois
98.74
1.26
SAFE-D
Massachusetts
100.00
0.00
SAFE-D
Maryland
99.98
0.02
SAFE-D
Maine
95.56
4.44
SAFE-D
Maine CD 1
98.28
1.72
SAFE-D
New Hampshire
91.46
8.54
SAFE-D
LOAD MORE

2020 ELECTION

OZY keeps you ahead of the curve on the race for the White House.

Valerie Jarrett on What to Expect from the Biden Presidency

The former White House senior advisor sat for a compelling interview on 'The Carlos Watson Show.

All Eyes on Georgia

President-elect Joe Biden's true power depends upon a January vote in the Peach State.

Butterfly Effect: Biden's Trump Card

Trump's foreign policy approach — and his refusal to leave quietly — could serve as surprising arrows in President-elect Joe Biden's diplomatic quiver.

Butterfly Effect: Why Putin, Xi and AMLO Are Mum on Biden

Russia, China, Mexico and others are worried about what Trump might do over the next 10 weeks.

OZY TV

The Carlos Watson Show

The Carlos Watson Show brings bold, impactful conversations with culture-defining celebrities, intellectual pioneers and changemakers, spotlighting the voices you need to hear to make sense of this important time in American history.

Two Years Ago, a Factory Worker. Today, a Republican Star

North Carolina’s Mark Robinson has turned humble roots and viral fame into Republican stardom.

Election Dispatch: The Next Phase of Trump

Like so many aspects of the Donald Trump presidency, the end won’t be normal.

'Today, We Celebrate. Tomorrow, We Work'

The joy in the streets of Washington, D.

A GOP Senate Will Make Biden Live Up to His Promise

A President Joe Biden who has to cut deals with Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell will lead from the center, and that's good for everyone.

World Sighs Relief Over Biden Win

Countries will be looking to Biden to restore traditional relationships of trust and consultation.

A People Without a Party

There are numerous warning signs that the Democratic coalition of color is at risk of crumbling.

OZY PODCAST

When Katty Met Carlos

From the BBC and OZY comes a fresh perspective on the debate about America’s future as a nation and its relation to the world during the 2020 US election.

Biden Won. Now What?

Biden's knocking at the door of 270, but Trump is showing no signs of conceding.

The Wildcard Moves Trump Has Left

Today's Daily Dose explores the twists and turns ahead.

Sign up for the weekly newsletter!