OZY and 0ptimus bring you an exclusive election prediction model, crunching polls, demographics and more to provide a snapshot of where the 2020 race stands — and the candidates’ chances of victory. Click here for more about our methodology.

State-by-State Predictions

What our predictions say about the most hotly contested states and races across the country.

Key States
DEM Chance of Victory
GOP Chance of Victory
Rating
Arizona
59.73
40.27
TOSS-UP
Georgia
52.02
47.98
TOSS-UP
Iowa
49.42
50.58
TOSS-UP
Maine CD 2
54.58
45.42
TOSS-UP
Ohio
44.33
55.67
TOSS-UP
Florida
63.28
36.72
LEAN-D
North Carolina
63.45
36.55
LEAN-D
Nebraska CD 2
64.84
35.16
LEAN-D
Wisconsin
74.64
25.36
LEAN-D
Texas
38.47
61.53
LEAN-R
Michigan
83.56
16.44
LIKELY-D
Minnesota
83.31
16.69
LIKELY-D
New Hampshire
89.71
10.29
LIKELY-D
Nevada
77.95
22.05
LIKELY-D
Pennsylvania
75.61
24.39
LIKELY-D
Alaska
22.97
77.03
LIKELY-R
Missouri
19.45
80.55
LIKELY-R
Montana
13.99
86.01
LIKELY-R
South Carolina
14.17
85.83
LIKELY-R
California
99.79
0.21
SAFE-D
Colorado
92.53
7.47
SAFE-D
Connecticut
99.89
0.11
SAFE-D
District of Columbia
100.00
0.00
SAFE-D
Delaware
99.80
0.20
SAFE-D
Hawaii
100.00
0.00
SAFE-D
Illinois
99.30
0.70
SAFE-D
Massachusetts
100.00
0.00
SAFE-D
Maryland
99.96
0.04
SAFE-D
Maine
91.69
8.31
SAFE-D
Maine CD 1
96.45
3.55
SAFE-D
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