OZY and 0ptimus bring you an exclusive election prediction model, crunching polls, demographics and more to provide a snapshot of where the 2020 race stands — and the candidates’ chances of victory. Click here for more about our methodology.

State-by-State Predictions

What our predictions say about the most hotly contested states and races across the country.

Key States
DEM Chance of Victory
GOP Chance of Victory
Rating
Arizona
56.62
43.38
TOSS-UP
Georgia
50.64
49.36
TOSS-UP
Iowa
44.50
55.50
TOSS-UP
North Carolina
58.10
41.90
TOSS-UP
Nebraska CD 2
59.16
40.84
TOSS-UP
Ohio
46.12
53.88
TOSS-UP
Florida
66.83
33.17
LEAN-D
Maine CD 2
60.03
39.97
LEAN-D
Texas
38.91
61.09
LEAN-R
Michigan
81.91
18.09
LIKELY-D
Minnesota
87.34
12.66
LIKELY-D
Nevada
78.45
21.55
LIKELY-D
Pennsylvania
76.73
23.27
LIKELY-D
Wisconsin
81.27
18.73
LIKELY-D
Alaska
18.86
81.14
LIKELY-R
Missouri
14.93
85.07
LIKELY-R
Montana
20.90
79.10
LIKELY-R
South Carolina
14.15
85.85
LIKELY-R
California
100.00
0.00
SAFE-D
Colorado
93.64
6.36
SAFE-D
Connecticut
99.99
0.01
SAFE-D
District of Columbia
100.00
0.00
SAFE-D
Delaware
99.92
0.08
SAFE-D
Hawaii
100.00
0.00
SAFE-D
Illinois
98.74
1.26
SAFE-D
Massachusetts
100.00
0.00
SAFE-D
Maryland
99.98
0.02
SAFE-D
Maine
95.56
4.44
SAFE-D
Maine CD 1
98.28
1.72
SAFE-D
New Hampshire
91.46
8.54
SAFE-D
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