OZY and 0ptimus bring you an exclusive election prediction model, crunching polls, demographics and more to provide a snapshot of where the 2020 race stands — and the candidates’ chances of victory. Click here for more about our methodology.

State-by-State Predictions

What our predictions say about the most hotly contested states and races across the country.

Key States
DEM Chance of Victory
GOP Chance of Victory
Rating
Arizona
54.61
45.39
TOSS-UP
Georgia
51.22
48.78
TOSS-UP
Iowa
49.33
50.67
TOSS-UP
Maine CD 2
53.20
46.80
TOSS-UP
Ohio
44.60
55.40
TOSS-UP
Texas
42.31
57.69
TOSS-UP
Florida
62.06
37.94
LEAN-D
North Carolina
62.41
37.59
LEAN-D
Nebraska CD 2
64.04
35.96
LEAN-D
Michigan
79.37
20.63
LIKELY-D
Minnesota
83.74
16.26
LIKELY-D
New Hampshire
89.24
10.76
LIKELY-D
Nevada
78.16
21.84
LIKELY-D
Pennsylvania
77.27
22.73
LIKELY-D
Wisconsin
75.91
24.09
LIKELY-D
Alaska
22.69
77.31
LIKELY-R
Missouri
19.22
80.78
LIKELY-R
Montana
16.82
83.18
LIKELY-R
South Carolina
15.82
84.18
LIKELY-R
California
99.90
0.10
SAFE-D
Colorado
93.10
6.90
SAFE-D
Connecticut
99.88
0.12
SAFE-D
District of Columbia
100.00
0.00
SAFE-D
Delaware
99.81
0.19
SAFE-D
Hawaii
100.00
0.00
SAFE-D
Illinois
99.35
0.65
SAFE-D
Massachusetts
100.00
0.00
SAFE-D
Maryland
99.96
0.04
SAFE-D
Maine
91.68
8.32
SAFE-D
Maine CD 1
96.57
3.43
SAFE-D
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