Bill Gates Looks Ahead
WHY YOU SHOULD CARE
Because he’s not just one of the richest men in the world, he’s smart, dedicated and totally plugged in.
Editor’s Note: We think of Bill Gates as one of the richest people on the planet, an innovator in personal computing. But it’s also true that he’s traveled all over the world and championed causes as diverse as education reform and malaria prevention, and he’s a voracious reader who publishes an annual list of book recommendations. And as we learned in our work with him, he’s an infectious optimist.
Over the weekend, Gates took over OZY’s Presidential Daily Brief for a look back, and a preview of what’s ahead. Here’s what he had to say.
Good News You Might’ve Missed
You’re probably seeing a lot of people’s year-end lists right now, going through the best movies, books, YouTube clips, Grumpy Cat memes, etc. I thought I would share a different kind of list: some of the good news you might have missed. I’ve limited my list to global health and development, where Melinda and I spend a lot of time, but even so, there’s a lot to report. If you measure progress — as I do — by the decreasing number of children who die of preventable causes or by the growing number of people who escape extreme poverty, then 2013 was definitely a good year.
We Got Smarter and Faster at Fighting Polio
You may have heard about recent polio outbreaks in Syria, Kenya and Somalia. What you may not know is just how rapid and effective the response has been. It looks like the outbreak in the Horn of Africa was controlled in four months, less than half the time it took to control an outbreak there in 2005. That speed is due in part to the work done at the Global Vaccine Summit held in Abu Dhabi this year. We adopted a comprehensive plan that includes making the world polio-free by 2018.
If you measure progress — as I do — by the decreasing number of children who die of preventable causes or by the growing number of people who escape extreme poverty, then 2013 was definitely a good year.
And more than 30 donors — including a number of very generous private individuals — backed the plan with a total of $4 billion in long-term funding. In early 2014, India will have gone three years without a single polio case (assuming no new ones are reported between now and then), a testament to the efficacy of immunizing every child. Next door in Pakistan, the political leaders are clearly resolved to get polio out of the country once and for all. When I met Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif this fall, he made it clear that he sees vaccinating children as a matter of justice. Despite the ongoing violence there and in Afghanistan — including horrifying reprisals against vaccine workers — the next couple of years are a good opportunity for us to make progress on this goal.
Child Mortality Went Down – Again
One of the yearly reports I keep an eye out for is “Levels & Trends in Child Mortality.” The title doesn’t sound especially uplifting, but the 2013 report shows amazing progress. For example, half as many children died in 2012 as in 1990. That’s the biggest decline ever recorded. And hardly anyone knows about it! If you want to learn more — and I’d urge you to — the report has a good “at-a-glance” summary on page 3.
The Poverty Rate Went Down – Again
If you want to read just one article that explains the state of the world’s poor and the future of the fight against poverty, check out “Not Always With Us,” which the Economist ran in June. It gives a short but thorough overview of the progress so far — the poverty rate has dropped by half since 1990 — and the prospects for keeping it going. As the article says, the biggest factor in reducing poverty over the past few decades has been economic growth — growth that touches not just those who are already rich but a broad range of people. We’ll need to maintain this growth in the coming decades to keep the poverty numbers coming down. That’s one reason I argue for stepping up our investments on health: Health may not cause growth directly, but it does help lay the foundation for it. I never miss an issue of the Economist, and this might be the best piece they ran this year.
A Fantastic Website Was Launched
If you love data, and if you’re curious about what causes the most suffering around the world, you should check out Global Burden of Disease, a website that was launched early this year. (The foundation helped pay for it.) Personally, I am a “yes” in both categories, which is why I have spent a lot of time there. The site lets you make beautiful charts that help you understand the impact of disease in different countries and even see how things change over time.
400 Million Children Get Immunized
Crucial to delivering all these vaccines is GAVI, an alliance that has helped 440 million children get immunized since 2000. (Go back and read that again: 440 million.) Next year, GAVI will be asking donors to renew their commitments, just as the Global Fund did this year. It will be a challenge to raise more money, but I know from experience that people want to help kids get vaccinated when they see what a phenomenal impact it has. It’s hard to resist the thrill of helping to save the life of a single child, let alone millions of them.
Innoculation Rollout Could Prevent Millions of Deaths
I’m excited about the continued rollout of a vaccine called pentavalent (because it prevents five diseases). Next year, it will be available in South Sudan, the last of the 73 poorest countries to introduce it. India just announced that they’ll start giving it to every child in the nation in 2014. If other countries follow India’s example, pentavalent could prevent 7 million deaths by 2020. Next up are new vaccines to prevent pneumonia and rotavirus (which causes diarrhea). And we’re seeing more middle-income countries like China and India develop the ability to manufacture vaccines, which drives the cost down.
On a Personal Note
I should say how grateful I am to everyone who made time to meet with me, from world leaders to health workers in India, Nigeria, Pakistan and around the globe. Some of these workers take great risks to help people, facing attacks from extremists in order to vaccinate children. They are true global-health heroes.
One More Thing …
One last note about 2014: I’ll be publishing my sixth annual letter in January. This time I’m planning to take a slightly different approach from years past — Melinda and I will be tackling some of the biggest myths we encounter in our work on health and poverty. It should be a fun one to write. If you’d like to get an email notice when the letter is out, you can sign up here.