How Kim Jong Un Keeps the West in the Dark - OZY | A Modern Media Company
TOPSHOT - US President Donald Trump waits at the line of demarcation for North Korea's leader Kim Jong-un in the Demilitarized Zone(DMZ) on June 30, 2019, in Panmunjom, Korea. (Photo by Brendan Smialowski / AFP) (Photo credit should read BRENDAN SMIALOWSKI/AFP via Getty Images)

WHY YOU SHOULD CARE

Because satellites can only capture so much.

By Edward White and Katrina Manson

As soon as Rachel Lee wakes up, she fires up her computer and starts scouring North Korean newspapers, television broadcasts, academic journals and obscure websites affiliated to the secretive nation.

Alongside the propagandist prose thick with dogma and slogans, images of politburo meetings, military parades, leadership rostrums, state anniversaries and funerals are parsed in search of one vital clue: who is inching nearer to Kim Jong Un, the supreme leader.

This painstaking research that the North Korean analyst has carried out for 20 years for the U.S. government, think tanks, and news services is critical in helping spy agencies and diplomats assess who might be gaining, or losing, influence in the leadership.

“The closer you are to the center … the more important you are,” said Lee.

Trust me, they [U.S. officials] don’t know what’s going on.

Sue Mi Terry, former CIA analyst

However, the limitations of foreign insight into Pyongyang’s inner workings have been exposed by the weeks-long absence of Kim. Unconfirmed reports of life-threatening health issues have sparked global intrigue and raised fears of instability in the volatile, nuclear-armed state.

Former U.S. government analysts do not think Kim is dead, but they are still trying to work out exactly what health problems he may be suffering. 

“For this one, I’m inclined to think that nobody knows — including U.S. intelligence,” said Lee.

On Monday, President Donald Trump suggested that the 36-year-old dictator was alive, despite speculation of a grave illness. 

“I hope he’s fine. I do know how he’s doing, relatively speaking,” Trump said.

On Saturday, Kim resurfaced. North Korea’s state news agency said he had appeared at a ceremony in a fertilizer factory, later releasing photos and video.

Human intelligence

Sue Mi Terry, a former CIA analyst who briefed presidents George W. Bush and Barack Obama on North Korea, said she favored communications intercepts when the “frustrating” task of gleaning thousands of pieces of information on the country fell to her.

But even then, she was wary she might be fed deliberate misinformation if the North Koreans suspected the U.S. was listening in.

“Trust me, they [U.S. officials] don’t know what’s going on,” said Terry, now a senior fellow with the Center for Strategic and International Studies.

“It’s not only the Americans, it’s the rest of the world — there is a reason why no one knew for 48 hours [that former leader Kim Jong Il had died], and we found out only because the North Koreans decided to tell us.”

Terry has relied on eavesdropping, satellite imagery and “humint” — human intelligence from some of the few North Korean officials who were on the CIA’s books. “Their control of information is so tight. The only way we would know now is if one of the top elites is on our payroll, but even then, how would they know?”

Information circles

Structural separations within Pyongyang’s political apparatus further restrict information related to the top leaders, analysts said.

Jung Pak, another former CIA analyst, described the system as Kim at the “bull’s eye” of multiple information circles, meaning the regime deliberately deprived not only the wider population but also parts of the inner circle of information.

“The bureaucracy don’t talk to each other,” said Pak. “Kim has been purging hundreds of people. He wants to keep shaking things up so no one knows who to trust, and individuals are less likely to start rising up [the ranks] and collect a group of friends. Secrecy is part of survival.”

Thae Yong Ho, a former senior North Korean diplomat in Europe and the U.K., has questioned whether even Beijing, which has much closer ties with Pyongyang, knows much about Kim’s illness.

“It is not a situation that even North Korea’s high-ranking officials will be aware of, except [Kim’s wife] Ri Sol Ju and his closest aides,” said Thae, now a high-profile defector and lawmaker in Seoul.

Eyes in the sky

Satellite imagery and spy planes are also critical in analyzing North Korea, giving military intelligence in South Korea and the U.S. insight into the country’s missile, nuclear and chemical weapons programs. 

The technology has also played an important role in identifying Pyongyang’s sanctions-busting activities, including mapping of illegal shipping transfers. And it has helped with attempts to trace Kim’s movements.

On Saturday, 38 North, a Washington think-tank program monitoring North Korea via commercial satellite imagery, reported that a train “probably belonging to Kim Jong Un” was spotted near the leader’s compound at Wonsan since April 21. It said that the location “does lend weight to reports that Kim is staying at an elite area on the country’s eastern coast.”

Still, experts urge caution in overdrawing conclusions from such information given Pyongyang’s long-running success in diversion.

In 2011, South Korean broadsheet the Chosun Ilbo quoting intelligence sources claimed that late leader Kim Jong Il had used three trains: Two move simultaneously to prevent terror attacks, “while the third serves as back-up.”

OLY-2018-PYEONGCHANG-OPENING-VIP

North Korea’s ceremonial head of state Kim Yong Nam and Kim Jong Un;s sister Kim Yo Jong (back R) watch the opening ceremony of the Pyeongchang 2018 Winter Olympic Games.

Source PATRICK SEMANSKY/AFP via Getty

Secret meetings

Unlike his hermit-like father, Kim Jong Un has engaged with international leaders. Since 2018, he has attended summits with Xi Jinping, the Chinese leader and South Korea’s Moon Jae-in, as well as three meetings with Trump. These engagements have allowed for more sideline meetings between diplomats

Numerous other meetings, often referred to as Track Two and not made public, continue to be regularly held in Asia and Europe between North Korean officials or their proxies and foreign, nongovernment North Korea experts, according to people who have attended the meetings.

The meetings are typically focused on economic or foreign policy issues, providing a platform for experts and officials to develop a diplomatic relationship rather than a means to extract sensitive information. 

Now, as Kim’s continued absence turns attention to whether his sister Kim Yo Jong could succeed him, intelligence experts remain in the dark. “We don’t know what’s happening because the Kim regime doesn’t want people to know,” said Pak. “They want to be coup-proof.” 

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By Edward White and Katrina Manson

OZY partners with the U.K.'s Financial Times to bring you premium analysis and features. © The Financial Times Limited 2020.

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